By Bai Fan, Jiemian News Reporter
Under the shadow of the US tariff policy, rumors of "large - scale shipping suspensions by shipping companies" are rife. Along with the suspension of the US - bound routes, the Asia - Europe routes, Southeast Asia routes, and South America routes are rising against the trend, and overseas warehouses have become an effective option to maintain certainty, with the volume of customer inquiries rising rapidly.
Since April 2, the US government has officially implemented a reciprocal tariff policy. So far, the tariffs on the Chinese market have reached a maximum of 245%. The rapidly rising tariffs have had a significant impact on the foreign trade industry, thus affecting the maritime shipping market.
On the one hand, foreign trade merchants are starting to seek more diversified business layouts. On the other hand, the maritime shipping industry is also actively working to help Chinese goods go global. The European market, South American market, and Southeast Asian market have become "alternative solutions" to the US market.
Foreign trade companies dare not ship rashly, and shipping companies are reducing the capacity of US - bound routes.
Currently, the suspension of the US - bound route market has become the most concerning issue in the industry and a signal for the future trend of the foreign trade market.
The latest container shipping weekly report updated by Drewry, a shipping consulting agency, shows that 83 voyages will be cancelled on the east - west main routes in the next five weeks, accounting for 12% of the planned 713 voyages. Among these 83 voyages, about 53% are on the trans - Pacific east - bound routes (routes starting from Asia, crossing the Pacific Ocean, and finally reaching North America), 29% are on the Asia - Northern Europe and Mediterranean routes, and 18% are on the trans - Atlantic west - bound routes (mainly referring to the maritime shipping channels connecting Europe and the east coast of the Americas).
This data shows that the shipping capacity of the route from China to North America will be significantly reduced, and it is also the route with the most significant changes among the world's major maritime shipping channels.
Data provided by Flexport to Jiemian News shows that recently, the number of empty flights on the US - bound routes has climbed, resulting in a significant reduction in capacity in April. The market has approximately a 20% reduction in capacity, and due to the adjustment or temporary suspension of some route services, available shipping space has become even tighter.
The Global Times reported that the volume of container bookings to the US surged in the first quarter but is now showing signs of "collapse," and "booking freezes for US - bound containers are common." Data provided by the trade data platform Vizion shows that due to tariff uncertainties, the volume of container bookings to the US dropped significantly by 67% compared to the previous week, and the volume of container bookings departing from the US decreased by 40%.
At the same time, US ports have also issued warnings of a decline in imports. The ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles in California are the two largest ports in the US in terms of throughput. According to the Global Times, the senior management of both ports have disclosed reminders of a future decline in port throughput. Among them, the freight volume of the Port of Long Beach may plummet by 20% in the second half of 2025, and the Port of Los Angeles expects its throughput to decline by 10% starting from May, and it is expected that there will be 12 cancelled or blank voyages at this port in May.
Foreign trade companies indeed dare not book shipping space easily.
Cen Xuexin, the Director of Customer Management for the Asia - Pacific region at Flexport, revealed that after Trump launched the 2.0 tariff policy, customers' shipping attitudes can be mainly divided into three types. One type is that certain branded products with high uniqueness and high market demand are still being shipped continuously. The second type is that some customers will suspend sea freight bookings from Asia until the tariff policy becomes clearer. In addition, many overseas - bound e - commerce companies have been mentally prepared for this for a long time and have been actively exploring other markets or diversifying production capacity since a long time ago.
After the freight demand declined due to tariffs, shipping companies naturally need to further reduce the capacity of US - bound routes. Recently, the container alliance Premier Alliance, composed of three Asian shipping giants Ocean Network Express (ONE), Hyundai Merchant Marine (HMM), and Yang Ming Marine Transport, decided to suspend the trans - Pacific freight route to the US that was originally scheduled to open next month.
There are reports that the OA Alliance (Ocean Alliance) composed of four shipping companies, namely COSCO Shipping, CMA CGM, Evergreen Marine (EMC), and Orient Overseas Container Line (OOCL), will cancel three routes to Los Angeles at the end of April, and ZIM Shipping Company also plans to suspend operations for two months.
Jiemian News verified this with freight forwarders. Some freight forwarders said they have not received the notice yet, but some freight forwarders said that there are indeed many empty voyages for the ships of the OA Alliance. In addition, on social platforms, many freight forwarders also said that many ships going to North America have suspended operations.
Jiemian News also noticed that the Trump administration in the US decided to temporarily reduce tariffs on Chinese smartphones, laptops, and other electronic products. However, according to US customs data, the import value of technical products such as smartphones and computers accounts for more than 20% of the total value of US imports, mainly transported by air, and their proportion in maritime shipping is extremely low, almost negligible. Therefore, this tariff measure has not substantially improved the trans - Pacific shipping demand.
"Slow - steaming Observation" quoted an analysis by Linerlytica, pointing out that although the tariff situation has eased somewhat, currently, 30% to 40% of the goods still cannot enter the US market due to high tariffs, mainly affecting shipping companies with significant trade with China, such as Hede, Matson, SeaLead, etc.
The impact is not only seen in the Chinese market. Recently, due to the continuous political and economic pressure exerted by US President Trump on the Venezuelan government, Maersk and CMA CGM announced that they will stop the jointly - operated Ceiba Express route starting from this month.
This route originally connected multiple ports such as Port Everglades in Florida, USA, Kingston in Jamaica, La Guaira in Venezuela, and Santo Tomas de Castilla. A total of two CMA CGM container ships and one Maersk container ship were deployed, with a turnaround time of three weeks.
The "Tax - Breaking" Plan Benefits Markets such as Europe and Southeast Asia
The suspension of shipping by shipping companies means that the shipping capacity on the routes will be correspondingly reduced. According to past rules, this helps to push up the current freight rates. However, the freight rates on the North American routes are declining.
The latest Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange shows that on April 11, the freight rates (including ocean freight and ocean freight surcharges) for the basic ports in the US West and US East from Shanghai Port were $2202/FEU and $3226/FEU respectively, down 4.8% and 2.4% respectively compared to the previous period.
In contrast, during the same period, the freight rate for exports from Shanghai Port to the Mediterranean was $2144/TEU, up 5.7% compared to the previous period, the market freight rate to Australia and New Zealand was $890/TEU, up 6.1% compared to the previous period, and the market freight rate to South America was $1566/TEU, up 9.1% compared to the previous period.
Regarding the changes in the US - bound route market, the report pointed out that in the short term, the "tariff war" has already had a certain impact on the transportation market of the China - US route. Some cargoes have cancelled their shipping plans, and bookings in the spot market have decreased significantly, with a slight price adjustment. A study by Haberkorn et al. in 2024 showed that after the US imposed tariffs on China from 2018 to 2019, for every 1% increase in tariffs, the volume of trade decreased by 1% one year after the implementation of the tariffs, indicating a high sensitivity of trade to tariffs.
Currently, many foreign trade merchants and maritime shipping professionals have launched a "tax - breaking" plan, which is beneficial to the European routes, South American routes, etc.
Cen Xuexin told Jiemian News that in the face of this wave of global tariff adjustments, in recent years, Flexport has expanded route resources and diversified business layouts in regions such as Southeast Asia and Europe. Therefore, when facing such sudden market changes, it can more flexibly respond to customer needs and dynamically adjust global resource allocation. Some small freight forwarders have also realized this problem. A freight forwarder said on a social platform, "Since the first day I started working as a freight forwarder, my boss told me that the routes should be comprehensive, and the value of this sentence is still increasing."
Affected by this, the global shipping pattern is quietly changing.
The international logistics service provider YunQuNa replied to Jiemian News that currently, the Latin American routes, European routes, and Southeast Asian routes are all the focus of attention. Judging from the current recovery speed of freight volume on the European routes, there is a high probability of price increases. The Shanghai Shipping Exchange analyzed that recently, China and the EU agreed to immediately start price commitment negotiations for electric vehicles, and in the future, the two sides are expected to further deepen trade, investment, and industrial cooperation. This has become a key factor in pushing up freight rates in the European market.
Foreign trade companies have long found this alternative to the US market. YunQuNa said that the EU's formal cancellation of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles has sent a positive signal to the market, and foreign trade enterprises and sellers have begun to increase their layout in the European market. "The foreign trade enterprises communicating with us have diversified logistics needs. There are both exports from China to Europe and exports from Southeast Asia to Europe, and the demand for overseas - to - overseas logistics solutions has increased." YunQuNa said.
In terms of the Southeast Asian routes, affected by factors such as tariffs and the approaching Labor Day, the freight volume is improving, and it is expected that the freight rates will generally rise. Especially in late April, some ships may depart late, suspend operations, or skip ports, and the shipping capacity is tightening. It is expected that routes such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia may experience cargo space shortages around May Day, and customers are advised to book shipping space in advance.
The South American market is also an area actively explored by the Chinese foreign trade industry. In mid - April, the direct shipping route from Zhuhai to Santana Port in Brazil was officially launched at the Gaolan Port International Container Terminal in the Zhuhai Economic and Technological Development Zone. The "Changmin" ship on its maiden voyage was loaded with home appliance assembly parts for the Gree Group's Brazilian factory, green organic fertilizers provided by Zoomlion Latin America (used to improve soil compaction problems in Brazil), photovoltaic panel samples and accessories, etc.
This route starts from Gaolan Port, passes through the Strait of Malacca and the Cape of Good Hope, and directly reaches Santana Port and Salvador Port in Brazil, reaching the core producing areas of minerals and agricultural products in Brazil and the industrial belt in the northeast, and radiating the entire emerging South American market.
Transshipment trade has also become a hot topic in the industry. Jiemian News has learned that in the days when Trump's 2.0 tariffs took effect, freight forwarders engaged in transshipment trade are actively looking for customers through various channels, and foreign trade merchants have also increased their interest in transshipment trade. A recent report released by Robinson also shows that less - than - container - load (LCL) and alternative routes are also effective measures to deal with this wave of tariff shocks. For example, under the condition that the supply chain allows, choosing LCL transportation or increasing transshipment ports can still effectively control costs.
However, transshipment trade involves processes such as first - leg transportation, customs clearance, entry into the bonded area, terminal operations at the transshipment port, second - leg ocean freight (i.e., from the transshipment port to the US port), customs clearance, and final - leg delivery. Among them, the work of changing containers and labels in the bonded area has received the most attention.
Some foreign trade merchants believe that label - changing may not necessarily solve the problem of the place of production of goods, and thus may also generate costs such as tax evasion fines. In addition, with the additional procedures compared to normal routes, the overall transportation cost will be higher. Some freight forwarders also told Jiemian News that there are many non - compliant aspects in transshipment trade, and only some freight forwarders may be able to handle it.
The unstable tariff policy has also drawn more attention to overseas warehouses. The functions of overseas warehouses mainly include rapid shipping, returns and exchanges, allocation, bonded functions (transshipment trade can be carried out), transshipment functions, transportation resource integration functions, and unpacking and repackaging functions. YunQuNa told Jiemian News that affected by the US tariffs, the number of inquiries about YunQuNa's overseas warehouses in Mexico has increased. The main customer demand is to increase investment in emerging markets such as Latin America and Mexico, and secondly, to increase the layout of business exchanges between the US and Mexico to reduce costs.
Maersk also told Jiemian News that currently, in addition to professional knowledge and the latest information related to customs, the topics that customers are concerned about also focus on exploring new opportunities - that is, using flexible logistics products to speed up or slow down the transportation speed of goods, as well as diverting goods to other markets, such as bonded warehousing, deferred transportation, and relabeling of goods that have been distributed in warehouses.
"We continue to explore with some customers the opportunities to use our 'Gemini' east - west maritime shipping network, express lines, and key hub terminals to transport goods to other regions and markets." Maersk said. But they also admitted that "uncertainty remains the main challenge."
